MONDAY AM: What a difference a day off from World Series baseball makes. Sony/Crunchyroll’s Chainsaw Man: Reze Arc is coming in higher with an estimated $18.2M after an improved upon Sunday of $4.5M. Sony hasn’t reported their official figure this AM.
Meanwhile, Paramount‘s Josh Boone directed Regretting You sassed away Universal/Blumhouse’s Black Phone 2 taking the No. 2 spot with $13.685M after a great Sunday hold, -17% from Saturday, with $3.8M. Boy wouldn’t that be nice if this female counterprogramming fills the void for the rest of the fall until we get to Wicked: For the Good. Allison Williams, McKenna Grace, Dave Franco and Scott Eastwood star. The female-skewing Ticket to Paradise opened in a similar late October frame to $16.5M back in 2022 and did a 4.1x multiple off that opening for a $68.2M take. But that was with an A- CinemaScore, and the reteaming of Julia Roberts and George Clooney in a revived romantic comedy genre. But, good on Regretting You here.
Black Phone 2 is at $12.9M in weekend 2, -53%, after a $3.59M Sunday for a running cume of $48.9M, +3% versus the first ten days of Black Phone which finaled at $90.1. While the second weekend hold is a tad steeper than Black Phone‘s -48%, Black Phone 2‘s second frame grosses more than the former, that pic posting $12.2M.
20th Century Studios’ Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere is currently still $9M in Disney’s books with a $2.2M Sunday. Rivals see it $400K lighter with $8.6M. Disney usually has tabs on theaters that rivals don’t see. We’ll see what this looks like later this afternoon. But sans the third face-off between L.A. Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays last night, the purse on this 59% over 45 skewing movie didn’t grow.
Also up is Focus Features’ Yorgos Lanthimos fifth Emma Stone collaboration, Bugonia with $710K from 17 venues or $41,7K average.
SUNDAY AM: Sony/Crunchyroll’s Chainsaw Man: Reze Arc is landing at the high end of where we were seeing it yesterday with $17.2M after a $5.2M million Saturday in a weekend where the Toronto Blue Jays and LA Dodgers were a complete distraction in the World Series, now with 1-1 tied streak. Running global cume on this anime movie is $108 million (40% of that coming from a September Japan release).
Sony and Crunchyroll know how to speak to their followers directly. They kicked off the campaign at Anime Expo Los Angeles in July which included a MAPPA panel (they produced the movie) and activations on the expo floor with MAPPA and Crunchyroll booths and Pochita walkabout and photo ops. Sony trailered Chainsaw Man on Demon Slayer, Him, One Battle After Another, and Tron: Ares. There was a big splash at New York Comic-Con two weeks ago with a MAPPA panel, exclusive BTS footage, a surprise fan screening raffle, Pochita photo ops and more.
There were also anime influencer screenings at Alamo Drafthouse Downtown LA attended by 80+ leading creators, as well as an Anime Men (13M followers) Imax advance screening at the large format exhibitor’s HQ in Playa Vista, CA. Sony also tapped into the Crunchyroll fanbase with a stunted two-part recap program for the IP on the anime brand’s platforms. There was also a presence on Crunchyroll’s platform and owned digital channels across 65+ markets, premium app homepage placement, dedicated newsletters, video ads, podcast ad spots and a YouTube watch-along livestream of the first season on five global channels. Premium formats, Imax and 3D drove an updated 63% of the weekend with AMC Empire in NYC the highest grossing venue with $72K.
Universal/Blumhouse’s second weekend of Black Phone 2 is edging out the start of Paramount’s Colleen Hoover movie, Regretting You, $13M to $12.8M. Updated over-performing regions include the Mountain, Midwest, South Central and Southern areas for the Hoover source material pic. Megaplex Theatres in Geneva, UT is the leading single-location gross at $16.9K. Bestselling woman’s novel-turned-film, Where the Crawdads Sing, held -40% in weekend two and legged out to a massive 5.2 multiple off its $17.2M opening for a final stateside of $90.2M. That landed an A-, Regretting You has a B. We’ll see what the hold factor is here for Regretting You; note that Crawdads had the advantage of a July 2022 playdate.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere is arriving at the low end of its projections with $9.1M. That start is just north of what MGM’s Aretha Franklin movie Respect did in its opening, $8.8M, which bowed in the summer of 2021 as movie theaters were making their way back from the pandemic. Respect finished at $24.2M off an A CinemaScore. Springsteen‘s global take is $16.1M, under the $20M the studio was expecting. The movie was shot with New Jersey tax credits and cost a net $55 million. Respect also cost a net of $55M. While the movie was made with the utmost respect and authenticity for The Boss, getting his sign-off so that the Warren Zanes novel could make it to screen under the direction of Scott Cooper, a movie about the global rock star’s depression period during the making of his Nebraska album, pre-Born in the U.S.A., is not a movie that his fans are rushing to. A lot went into this from Jeremy Allen White’s months-long prep as Springsteen to the production shooting in The Boss’ NJ stomping ground.
Also complicating Springsteen‘s success is a non-holiday release date during an October World Series-NFL perfect storm weekend. Had Springsteen been released during the holidays, that’s when this older skewing audience of 59% over 45 could truly find it. The movie was brought in by incoming Disney chief David Greenbaum as his first project since segueing over from Searchlight after A24 passed on the movie over its production cost. In its essence, Springsteen is more of an arthouse film than a big Bohemian Rhapsody 20th Century title, however, the studio didn’t want to put it through Searchlight since they recently played James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown. Springsteen championed the movie during the promotional tour. He didn’t sign onto the film as an EP as he never desired the production to come across as a vanity project.
Also, as is the Russian roulette with these possible awards contenders, if they’re trotted out too early at the fall film festival troika, and they’re not exactly perfect, it could spell doom for a movie’s prospects. Springsteen, despite the brilliant performance of White, didn’t exactly wow following its Telluride world premiere and has been sitting on Rotten Tomatoes with a 61% critics score. At the same time, Disney is hoping for some sort of hold with 85% Rotten Tomatoes audience score and that 60% definite recommend from Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak exits.
Note, just because Springsteen bottomed out, doesn’t mean that rock performer biopic is dead. True, they are hard to stitch so that it’s not the same old drugs, sex and rock n’ roll, but there needs to be a groundswell triumph in the story, a quite overt overcoming of all odds story, and chock-a-block concert performances. This has been a successful sub-genre with Bohemian Rhapsody, Ray and Rocket Man pre-pandemic and Elvis and Bob Marley: One Love post. Why did A Complete Unknown win over in the story of off-beat poet-turned-electric guy, Bob Dylan? Why it was the whole romantic tension between Timothee Chalamet’s Dylan and Monica Barbaro’s Joan Baez (note that movie received an A CinemaScore to Springsteen‘s B+). That movie landed eight Oscar noms.
Pre-release social media universe reach on Springsteen counted 160M, which was +4% ahead of the music bio genre norm per RelishMix, yet below that of A Complete Unknown (187.4M) and Bob Marley: One Love (193.6M).
In better news for arthouse, Focus Features’ first limited weekend of Yorgos Lanthimos’ zany corporate politico-hostage comedy Bugonia posted a $40.5K opening theater average at 17 theaters — that’s the fifth best opening theater average YTD. Huge performances in NYC, LA and Austin. The Emma Stone-Jesse Plemmons movie posted $690K off of very shiny critical reviews of 90% coming out of its Venice and Telluride premiere. The movie, which reps Lanthimos and Stone’s fifth collaboration together (that includes the 2022 short film Bleat) cost a ton of cash, with Focus taking this package off the table for $45 million (I hear the movie itself cost $55 million). Part of the promotion included free screenings for anyone who is bald, or those yearning to be, with a barber on hand at cinemas. Bugonia expands to 1,800 locations over Halloween weekend. Note, the distribution plan here for Bugonia is different from Lanthimos’ Oscar darlings, The Favourite and Poor Things, which played the Thanksgiving and early December corridor, riding their awards season buzz and posting and holding weekends where those pics were often making $2M to $3M a weekend.
1. Chainsaw Man (Sony) 3,003 theaters, Fri $8.5M, Sat $5.2M Sun $3.5M 3-day $17.2M/Wk 1
2. Black Phone 2 (Uni) 3,460 (+49) theaters, Fri $3.8M, Sat $5.4M Sun $3.76M 3-day $13M (-52%), Total $49M/Wk 2
3. Regretting You (Par) 3,393 theaters, Fri $5.2M Sat $4.6M Sun $2.97M 3-day $12.85M/Wk 1
4. Springsteen…(20th) 3,460 theaters, Fri $3.6M, Sat $3.1M Sun $2.4M 3-day $9.1M/Wk 1
5. Tron: Ares (Dis) 2,940 (-1060) theaters, Fri $1.3M Sat $2.2M Sun $1.4M, 3-day $4.9M (-56%), Total $63.3M/Wk 3
6. Good Fortune (LG) 2,990 theaters, Fri $925K Sat $1.3M, Sun $855K 3-day $3.1M (-49%), Total $11.8M/Wk 2
7. Shelby Oaks (NEON) 1,823 theaters, Fri $1.1M, Sat $700K, Sun $500K 3-day $2.35M/Wk 1
8. One Battle After Another (WB) 1,473 (-1059) theaters, Fri $650K Sat $940K Sun $740K 3-day $2.33M (-39%), Total $65.7M/Wk 5. Global on the Paul Thomas Anderson directed, Leonardo DiCaprio-Sean Penn-Benecio del Toro movie stands at $180M.
9. Roofman (Par) 2,347 (-1023) theaters, Fri $600K Sun $875K Sun $525K 3-day $2M (-46%), Total $19.36M/Wk 3
10. ParaNorman (Fath) 1,359 theaters, Sat $637K, Sun $478K, Wk $1.1M/Wk 1 of re-issue
SATURDAY AM: In an autumn where prestige awards potential isn’t working, nor attempted tentpoles like Tron: Ares, Sony/Crunchyroll anime proves its merit again with its latest Chainsaw Man: Reze Arc which is now looking at a $15.5M-$17M opening after an $8.5M Friday, powered by an A CinemaScore from fans.
It will be interesting to see if the audience expands today as the fanbase for this movie are shouting its praises to the sky with an 82% definite recommend on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak.
This is the ninth anime movie to open north of $10M, which is a big deal, because not every Japanese animation IP works on the big screen. What’s great about this is that Sony has a new solid franchise in the wake of Demon Slayer. Even if this drops tonight in typical front-loaded anime fashion, it’s another No. 1 win for Sony this year with non-traditional motion picture fare. As studios execs remain perplexed about what exactly works this fall, it’s all anime, horror and Taylor Swift.
Imax and premium large format screens are revving 58% of Chainsaw‘s weekend with the West, South and South Central its best grossing regions. There’s also a great swath of diverse demos all around in 32% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, a very strong 20% Asian American and 13% Black. The AMC Empire in NYC is the top grossing theater with close to $45K.
A title acquired during the Brian Robbins regime at Paramount, Regretting You, is doing its job in attracting 83% female moviegoers with a $13M 2nd place opening after a $5.2M Friday and B CinemaScore. In PostTrak exits, women love the movie giving it a 77% definite recommend. Regretting You isn’ the most popular of the Colleen Hoover novels in the It Ends With Us-sense of the word, and it didn’t have the whole Blake Lively-Ryan Reynolds post-Deadpool & Wolverine marketing halo effect, so take that into account. Paramount snapped up the $30 million financed production post the Hoover It Ends With Us box office fiesta in summer 2024 (that moving making $351 million worldwide); Amazon MGM Studios took the author’s novel Verity (out on Oct. 2 next year with Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson) while Universal snapped up Reminders of Him (March 13 with Maika Monroe).
Diverse demos for Regretting You are 50% Caucasian, 36% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Asian American and 5% Black. Women over 25 led at 45%, with women under 25 at 39%.
Distrib sources are complaining that the World Series is cutting into male moviegoers this weekend. Then why the hell are you booking movies aimed at men during a juggernaut time when guys can’t come? Good on Paramount for capitalizing on the opportunity to book a female-driven title on the marquee.
While we’re on the subject of bad release dates for what should be older skewing male movies: 20th Century Studios’ Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere which has now shifted its range to $9M-$10M (many are seeing $9M) after a B+ CinemaScore in fourth with Universal/Blumhouse’s Black Phone 2 second weekend ahead in 3rd with $12M (-56%). If Springsteen hits the bottom of its tracking range at $9M, it won’t be “Glory Days” for this net $55M Jeremy Allen White-Jeremy Strong starring production. On the upside, the movie has a 60% definite recommend on PostTrak, so we’ll see if this improves. Why isn’t this brand-name rock performer movie not being released over Christmas ala last year’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown when a bigger audience is available? While older Springsteen fans showed up last night at 40% over 55 (the pic’s biggest demo) and 59% over 45, it was clearly not in bulk judging from the grosses. Also, Springsteen was largely female leaning movie at 52%. Women over 25 bought tickets at 46% and men over 25 went at 42%. Overall, this is very Caucasian leaning movie at 85% with few diverse demos showing up. We’ll get into this more as the weekend goes on, but off the bat, the release date isn’t doing this making-of-the-Nebraska-album any favors.
Premium large format screens for the Scott Cooper directed title are repping a quarter of the weekend’s gross with best areas of play in the East and Midwest. AMC Lincoln Square is the top grossing location with over $32K so far.
NEON’s Shelby Oaks gets a C+ after a $1.1M Friday on its way to around $2.3M now. Best areas for the Chris Stuckmann directed movie are the West, South Central, and East with AMC’s Boston Common 19 the top grossing venue stateside with just over $7K. Fifty-three percent guys, 74% 18-34. This is a standard NEON niche genre play.
Overall ticket sales are clocking an estimated $75.4M, which is +8% from last weekend, but down 20% from a year ago when Venom: The Last Dance opened to $51M. Remember, New Line’s Mortal Kombat 2 was suppose to open this weekend before it moved to early May next year; a brilliant release date change by Warner Bros, sidestepping the World Series.
Saturday numbers:
1. Chainsaw Man (Sony) 3,003 theaters, Fri $8.5M, 3-day $15M-$17M/Wk 1
2 Regretting You (Par) 3,393 theaters, Fri $5.2M 3-day $13M/Wk 1
3. Black Phone 2 (Uni) 3,460 (+49) theaters, Fri $3.7M (-66%), 3-day $12M (-56%), Total $48M/Wk 2
4. Springsteen…(20th) 3,460 theaters, Fri $3.5M 3-day $9M-$10M/Wk 1
5. Tron: Ares (Dis) 2,940 (-1060) theaters, Fri $1.3M (-57%), 3-day $4.7M (-58%), Total $63.1M/Wk 3
6. Good Fortune (LG) 2,990 theaters, Fri $920K (-62%) 3-day $3.1M (-49%), Total $11.8M/Wk 2
7. Shelby Oaks (NEON) 1,823 theaters, Fri $1.1M, 3-day $2.3M/Wk 1
8. One Battle After Another (WB) 1,473 (-1059) theaters, Fri $650K (-43%), 3-day $2M (-47%), Total $65.4M/Wk 5
9. Roofman (Par) 2,347 (-1023) theaters, Fri $600K (-47%) 3-day $1.9M (-49%), Total $19.2M/Wk 3
10. The Mastermind (Mubi) 186 (+181) theaters, Fri $350K (+753%), 3-day $1.2M (+1054%), Total $1.3M/Wk 2
FRIDAY PM: Sony/Crunchyroll’s Chainsaw Man: Reze Arc is slicing its way to the top of the box office with a good $8M today for what’s shaping up to be a $14 million-plus weekend.
While at the high end of its $11M-$14M projections, and a clear No. 1, the caution here is that it’s the first night of the World Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the Toronto Blue Jays. Los Angeles is the No. 1 market for anime movies.
RelishMix reports that the social media reach on Chainsaw Man is massive at a half billion, 6x above anime genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined with gigantic video views counts on YouTube of 351 million and counting. Note Chainsaw Man‘s reach on social is 2.5x more than Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle before its opening which stood at 200 million.
Reports the social media stat org, “Convo runs positive for Chainsaw Man-The Movie: Reze Arc, with fans losing their minds over animation studio MAPPA’s cinematic polish, the faithfulness to the manga’s art style, and Kenshi Yonezu’s soundtrack. Theatrical worthiness is a recurring theme, with audiences insisting this arc had to be a movie. The chatter even positions it above competing anime events, with praise like ‘compared to the recent Infinity Castle, Reze arc was kick ass—would watch in theaters again’ and ‘I absolutely love how loyal they stayed to the art style, it feels like the manga came to life.’
The following music video alone is racking up close to 68 million views on YouTube.
Second is a three-way race between 20th Century Studios’ Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (3,460 theaters), Paramount’s Colleen Hoover movie Regretting You (3,393 theaters) and the second weekend of Universal/Blumhouse’s Black Phone 2 (3,460 theaters) each looking at $10.8M-$12M. For Black Phone 2, that hold-range is better than -60% with at least $47M by Sunday, which would be $400K less than Black Phone at the same point in time of its ten-day run.
Fifth is the third weekend of Disney’s Tron: Ares at 2,940 theaters with $1.3M today and $4M+ for the weekend.
Neon’s horror thriller from Chris Stuckmann, Shelby Oaks, is spotting $1.1M today for a $2.5M take at 1,823 sites. This is in the range of Neon’s summer 2024 horror title, Cuckoo which opened to $3M.
FRIDAY AM: Sony/Crunchyroll’s Chainsaw Man: Reze Arc revved up $3.4 million in previews Thursday in screenings that began at 4 p.m. at 2,500 locations.
By the way, that preview number is close to the $3.8M posted by Demon Slayer: Mugen Train back in April 2021, on its way to a three-day total f $21.2M as movie theaters were reopening from Covid. That title, released by Funimation/Aniplex, had a Friday of $9.5M.
The Tatsuya Yoshihara-directed Chainsaw Man based on the popular manga is expected to ring up $11M+ in a weekend that might now be too close to call with Universal/Blumhouse’s Black Phone 2 with an expected $12M+ second frame.
Chainsaw Man is 100% fresh from 18 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and has a 99% audience score.
Meanwhile, 20th Century Studios’ $55M Scott Cooper-directed Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere strummed $850,000. The movie is expected to bring in $9M-$11M. Note that preview take is under the $1.4M Christmas preview gross of Searchlight’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, which went electric over the holidays with a $7.2M opening day, $11.6M 3-day and 5-day total of $23.2M. Springsteen is opening at 3,460 theatres including 250 Imax screens and 750 Premium Large Format screens. Critics aren’t wowed by this rock performer biopic at 61% fresh, but fans last night enjoyed it better at 85%.
Jeremy Allen White plays Bruce Springsteen and Jeremy Strong plays his manager Jon Landau in a semi-biopic about The Boss recording the personal 1982 album Nebraska which preceded his global phenomenon Born in the U.S.A.
Paramount is not reporting grosses on Regretting You given its limited run in under 500 theaters last night, with one showtime for the A Night of No Regrets fan event that included a Q&A with cast and director Josh Boone with a special performance by Hannah Cohen. Nonetheless, sources say the movie did better than Springsteen last night. Regretting You was forecasted at $9M-$11M this weekend in what is the second Colleen Hoover novel feature adaptation to hit the screen after the massive success of It Ends With Us. Critics don’t like the schmaltziness of Regretting You at 34% on RT, but there was also never beginning with them on It Ends With Us which they threw Kleenex boxes at with 54%.
Neon this frame has the psychological thriller Shelby Oaks, which did $515K from combined mystery screenings and last night’s previews. The movie is expected to file in the low single digits.
Black Phone 2 posted $1.6M yesterday, off 11% from Wednesday, for a first week of $36M, up 3% from its 2022 first chapter.
The rest of the top 5:
1.) Black Phone 2 (Uni) 3,411 theaters, Thu $1.6M (-11% from Wed), Wk $36M/Wk 1
2.) Tron: Ares (Dis) 4,000 theaters, Thu $698K (-22%), Wk $15M (-65%), Total $58.4M/Wk 2
3.) Good Fortune (LG) 2,990 theaters Thu $487K (-15%), Wk $8.7M/Wk 1
4.) One Battle After Another (WB) 2,532 theaters, Thu $350K (-18%) Wk $5.5M (-45%), Total $63.4M/Wk 4
5.) Roofman (Par) 3,370 theaters, Thu $346K (-17%), Wk $5.5M (-53%),Total $17.3M/Wk 2
From Deadline.com